Can a 10 Day Weather Forecast Save Your Life?

We know that an extended weather forecast covering the next ten days can be helpful in our everyday lives.  We can plan our leisure time or outside home projects according to that information.  Some types of employment, such as road construction or farming, depend upon knowing accurate weather information.  Our children’s extra-curricular activities such as outside sports can also be planned better with a 10 day weather forecast.  But did you ever consider whether a 10 day forecast could actually save your life?  After Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana and the Gulf Coast, it became tragically obvious that perhaps it could.

Just two years ago, scientists could only forecast information about two days ahead of the storm’s track.  That time span is now increased to about five days.  However, one of the biggest problems when Hurricane Katrina blasted New Orleans and the Gulf Coast was that just the year before, meteorologists had incorrectly predicted the path of Hurricane Ivan.  It was believed that Ivan would hit New Orleans and cause great damage and some 600,000 people evacuated.  That storm took a last minute detour and the crisis was averted- or at least delayed until the following season. 




The weather forecast in Louisiana preceding the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina offered signs that the impending weather could be life threatening.  As early as three days prior to Katrina’s landfall, experts were predicting that New Orleans would be in its path.  In fact, predictions of where the hurricane would come ashore were off by only about 15 miles.  Compare that to an average error, when predicted 48 hours in advance, of 160 miles and it becomes obvious that tracking the path of Katrina was precise and early.  Because so many saw the predictions regarding Hurricane Ivan fall short just one year earlier, a “crying wolf” attitude cost so many their homes and their lives.

While predicting a hurricane in a ten day forecast is still out of reach, the newest technology is increasing that lead time from 24 to 36 hours to as much as five days of advance warning of the path of a hurricane prior to landfall. New technology is also helping to increase the ability to predict the swell of intensity of a hurricane as it hits land.  This can be life saving information.

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It is unlikely that Hurricane Katrina will ever be forgotten.  The question is: will you let the forecast save your life?  Today a five-day forecast may be able to do just that.  It may be a very short period of time before a ten day weather forecast can do the same.